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Climate change and its effects are and will continue to impact the Rocky Mountain West and Montana. Through human-caused climatic variation, Western Montana will be impacted in a multitude of ways, many of which result in negative impacts for the people, flora, and fauna populating the region.
In Missoula, the changing climate is bringing a host of changes including, but not limited to: hotter, drier summers, warmer, wetter springs, more frequent and intense wildfires and floods, and more wildfire smoke. |
Click HERE to learn more about what climate change means for some of the unique wildlife, ecoystems, and recreation opportunities in Western Montana. |
Visit the Climate Ready Missoula site to learn more about how climate change will be impacting Missoula County.
The League of Women Voters Montana hosted an awesome virtual talk (Nov 2022): Montana Climate Extremes (with the latest science and projections for the future)
Click here to watch or listen to 2020-22 local climate change science lectures hosted by the Bitterroot Climate Action Group. Scroll down for Fire & Climate by Dr. Phil Higuera plus Fish & Climate by Chris Clancy (March '22).
The League of Women Voters Montana hosted an awesome virtual talk (Nov 2022): Montana Climate Extremes (with the latest science and projections for the future)
Click here to watch or listen to 2020-22 local climate change science lectures hosted by the Bitterroot Climate Action Group. Scroll down for Fire & Climate by Dr. Phil Higuera plus Fish & Climate by Chris Clancy (March '22).
WILDFIRE
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While wildfire is a keystone component of northern Rockies ecosystems and not a rare phenomenon, forest management strategies (e.g. fire suppression that has led to increased fuel accumulation) and climate change, most notably, have caused an increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires and will continue to do so.
As the climate in Missoula continues to warm, and as summers experience a decrease in rainfall, fires are expected to become worse over time. More wildfires are problematic for the many people living in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), as well as for the health of Missoula’s residents. Exposure to poor air quality due to wildfire smoke has been found to be quite dangerous. |
Photo by Sharon Brogan
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Between 1997 and 2006, 339,000 human deaths per year globally were attributed to smoke from landscape fires. Exposure to wildfire smoke can cause emergency room visits for conditions such as asthma, cardiovascular conditions (e.g., stroke, heart attack, and heart failure).
Smoke events in the western United States from 2004 to 2009 were associated with a 7.2 % increase in respiratory hospital admissions among adults over 65 years old.
Wildfire smoke contains many components that are hazardous to human health, including polyaromatic hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, aldehydes, benzene, and other components.
Perhaps one of the most dangerous aspects of poor air quality is particulate matter (PM; especially PM 2.5 and PM 10). It has been associated with deleterious health effects that include cardiovascular, respiratory, immunological problems (increased risk for pneumonia), and neurological issues (a greater risk for dementia).
Smoke events in the western United States from 2004 to 2009 were associated with a 7.2 % increase in respiratory hospital admissions among adults over 65 years old.
Wildfire smoke contains many components that are hazardous to human health, including polyaromatic hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, aldehydes, benzene, and other components.
Perhaps one of the most dangerous aspects of poor air quality is particulate matter (PM; especially PM 2.5 and PM 10). It has been associated with deleterious health effects that include cardiovascular, respiratory, immunological problems (increased risk for pneumonia), and neurological issues (a greater risk for dementia).
.For more information on fire in the west, listen to the podcast "Fireline" by Montana Public Radio or read this article written by our very own, Amy Cilimburg.
PRECIPITATION CHANGE
Photo by Jenny Thorpe
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Climate projections predict that Missoula is likely to experience an increase in year-round precipitation.
Average and annual precipitation for Missoula is expected to increase by 2 to 3% by mid-century and by 3 to 6% by end-of-century. However, this increase in precipitation will not be the same for every season. Winters and springs are expected to receive the most precipitation and summers are expected to be drier. Drier summers and higher temperatures year round will likely lead to reduced late-summer streamflows. Due to warmer year-round temperatures, more winter precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow. Due to the likely increase of “rain-on-snow” events and the projected increase of intense precipitation events, flooding will become a more common phenomenon. |
INCREASING TEMPERATURES
According to mid-century projections, Missoula’s annual average temperature is projected to increase by about 4 to 5°F and by 5 to 8°F according to end-of-century projections.
By this time, the average number of hot days (days above 90°F) is expected to increase by 12 to 20 days per year. Furter, the number of frost days per year are expected to decrease by 36 to 46 days by mid-century and by 45 to 73 days by end-of-century.
By this time, the average number of hot days (days above 90°F) is expected to increase by 12 to 20 days per year. Furter, the number of frost days per year are expected to decrease by 36 to 46 days by mid-century and by 45 to 73 days by end-of-century.
From the 2017 Montana Climate Assessment
Increasing temperatures are projected to lead to reduced low-elevation snowpack, early snowmelt, and an earlier peak in spring runoff, further perpetuating water issues. Decreased snowpack will certainly impact various aspects of recreation as well.
From the 2017 Montana Climate Assessment; SWE stands for snow water equivalent
Not only do increasing temperatures impact water, but they also cause impacts to peoples’ health. Higher temperatures directly lead to heat-related health conditions ranging from muscle cramps to heat exhaustion to heat stroke.
In addition, elevated temperatures have been associated with increases in respiratory disease, heart disease, strokes, kidney disease, and kidney failure.
In addition, elevated temperatures have been associated with increases in respiratory disease, heart disease, strokes, kidney disease, and kidney failure.
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
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A possible future climate scenario for Missoula is one with far more climate variability.
We might experience some very wet years, and others that are painfully dry. The idea of “normal climate” for a year may be a thing of the past. This climate variability may cause things like extreme or unexpected weather events, which can damage human property and health, as well as make it more challenging for human natural systems to adapt. While the unpredictability of climate will affect all sectors, agriculture, recreation, and tourism will likely be hit the hardest. Less predictable weather and more variation in freeze and thaw times will lead to challenging management for farmers and ranchers. Considering recreation and tourism, the seasons for certain sports, like skiing and fishing will vary from year to year, making planning far more difficult. |
Photo by Tom Fite
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